The Cloud and Clean Air
The bleak financial climate has tempered everybody’s optimism about the years to come a little bit, but I still think it’s worthwhile to take a peak into the future.
The discourse surrounding cloud computing and virtualization has been far too focused on the obsolescence of the old IT dinosaurs. The biggest story is not whether Google Docs kills Microsoft Office, or whether the browser replaces the desktop OS, or whether a company maintains its own physical servers or pays Amazon by the drink for access to computing horsepower and storage.
These are all historic developments, of course. But it’s the office itself that will undergo the biggest transformation. If all my productivity apps are housed on the grid, then what is the office but a very expensive space in which to gather together and draw on shared bandwidth? I have a 20 megabit/second pipe furnished by my cable ISP, which is lying dormant at home right now, running at 0% of its prodigious capacity. If there is no machine, no piece of software, and no connectivity in the office that I cannot match or even exceed at home, then why am I not at home on my comfortable couch writing this blog?
In the last two hundred years, the rise of heavy electrical machinery, the assembly line, and the other trappings of mass production have sundered the ancestral link between living space and working space; one could easily work as a scribe or fuller from one's basement in the Middle Ages, but only companies, with access to broad pools of capital, could maintain machines like the newspaper press. Yet the online grid obviates not only the need for traditional IT, but also the need for the office itself. Remote, individuated production is possible again. Additionally, it eliminates the need for white collar (and, perhaps eventually, for blue collar) home-to-office transit. If the computing grid wipes out rush hour, it becomes the single most powerful tool in the war against climate change.
On TV, you’ll see two candidates for president fulminating about America’s dependence on foreign oil. If they were truly paying attention, they would realize that reducing this dependence may have much less to do with solar panels and wind turbines, and much more to do with Google’s server farms.
Update: Of course, there is also the darker view: rather than leading of a florescence of "working from home," the cloud may lead to more people being literally sent home. As Nicholas Carr incisively states, "when we take into account the economic forces that the World Wide Computer is unleashing--the spread of the increasing-returns dynamic to more sectors of the economy, the replacement of skilled as well as unskilled workers with software, the global trade in knowledge work, and the ability of companies to (crowdsource) and harvest its economic value--we're left with a prospect that is far from utopian."









